701-1226-00L Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction
Semester | Spring Semester 2019 |
Lecturers | C. Appenzeller |
Periodicity | yearly recurring course |
Language of instruction | English |
Abstract | This course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized. |
Objective | Students will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting sub-seasonal to inter-annual variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services. |
Content | The course covers the following topics: Part 1: - Introduction, some basic concepts and examples of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability - Weather and climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing inter-annual variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis) Part 2: - Inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) - Inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA, regimes) Part 3: - Prediction of inter-annual variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction systems, monthly and seasonal forecasts, seamless forecasts) - Verification and interpretation of probabilistic forecast systems - Climate change and inter-annual variability Part 4: - Challenges for operational weather and climate services - Role of weather and climate extremes - Early warning systems - A visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss |
Lecture notes | A pdf version of the slides will be available at Link |
Literature | References are given during the lecture. |