The spring semester 2021 will take place online until further notice. Exceptions: Courses that can only be carried out with on-site presence. Please note the information provided by the lecturers.

701-1226-00L  Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction

SemesterSpring Semester 2018
LecturersC. Appenzeller
Periodicityyearly recurring course
Language of instructionEnglish


AbstractThis course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized.
ObjectiveStudents will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting short-term climate variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services.
ContentThe course covers the following topics:

Part 1:
- a brief introduction into short-term climate variability and some basic concepts
- a brief review of climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing climate variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis)

Part 2:
- inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO)
- inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA, regimes)

Part 3:
- prediction of short-term climate variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction systems. weekly to seasonal forecasts)
- verification methods for probabilistic forecast systems

Part 4:
- challenges for operational weather and climate services
- weather and climate extremes
- early warning systems
- a visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss
Lecture notesA pdf version of the slides will be available at
http://www.iac.ethz.ch/edu/courses/master/modules/interannual-phenomena.html
LiteratureReferences are given during the lecture.