This course gives an overview of the current ability to understand and predict short term climate variability in the tropical and extra tropical region.
Students will acquire an understanding of the key processes involved and will acquire expertise in analyzing and predicting short-term climate variability.
The course covers following topics: A brief review of the relevant components of the climate system, the statistical concepts used in climate analysis studies (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis), the role of ocean-atmosphere feedback processes in intra- and interseasonal climate variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) and in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA), the concepts of weather and climate regimes, different prediction methods for short term climate variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction methods, coupled ocean atmosphere models), probabilistic verification methods, predictability studies, examples of end user applications (e.g. seasonal forecasts) and the role of inter-annual and decadal climate variability in the current climate change debate.
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