701-1226-00L  Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction

SemesterSpring Semester 2021
LecturersC. Appenzeller
Periodicityyearly recurring course
Language of instructionEnglish


AbstractThis course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized.
ObjectiveStudents will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting sub-seasonal to inter-annual variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services.
ContentThe course covers the following topics:

Part 1:
- Introduction, some basic concepts and examples of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability
- Weather and climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing inter-annual variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis)

Part 2:
- Inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO)
- Inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA, regimes)

Part 3:
- Prediction of inter-annual variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction systems, monthly and seasonal forecasts, seamless forecasts)
- Verification and interpretation of probabilistic forecast systems
- Climate change and inter-annual variability

Part 4:
- Scientific challenges for operational weather and climate services
- A visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss
Lecture notesA pdf version of the slides will be available at
http://www.iac.ethz.ch/edu/courses/master/modules/interannual-phenomena.html
LiteratureReferences are given during the lecture.