401-3917-00L  Stochastic Loss Reserving Methods

SemesterSpring Semester 2016
LecturersR. Dahms
Periodicityyearly course
Language of instructionEnglish


AbstractLoss Reserving is one of the central topics in non-life insurance. Mathematicians and actuaries need to estimate adequate reserves for liabilities caused by claims. These claims reserves have influence all financial statements, future premiums and solvency margins. We present the stochastics behind various methods that are used in practice to calculate those loss reserves.
ObjectiveOur goal is to present the stochastics behind various methods that are used in prctice to estimate claim reserves. These methods enable us to set adequate reserves for liabilities caused by claims and to determine prediction errors of these predictions.
ContentWe will present the following stochastic claims reserving methods/models:
- Stochastic Chain-Ladder Method
- Bayesian Methods, Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method, Credibility Methods
- Distributional Models
- Linear Stochastic Reserving Models, with and without inflation
- Bootstrap Methods
- Claims Development Result (solvency view)
- Coupling of portfolios
LiteratureM. V. Wüthrich, M. Merz, Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance, Wiley 2008.
Prerequisites / NoticeThis course will be held in English and counts towards the diploma "Aktuar SAV".
For the latter, see details under www.actuaries.ch.

Basic knowledge in probability theory is assumed, in particular conditional expectations.