701-1226-00L Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction
| Semester | Spring Semester 2024 |
| Lecturers | C. Appenzeller |
| Periodicity | yearly recurring course |
| Language of instruction | English |
| Abstract | This course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual weather and climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Learning objective | Students will acquire an understanding of the key atmosphere and ocean processes involved, will gain experience in analyzing and predicting weekly to inter-annual variability and learn how operational weather and climate services are organised and how scientific developments can improve these services. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Content | The course covers the following topics: Part 1: - Introduction, some basic concepts and examples of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability - Weather and climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing weather and climate variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis) Part 2: - Inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) - Inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking systems, NAO, PNA, regimes) Part 3: - Prediction of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability (statistical methods, probabilistic ensemble prediction systems, weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasts, seamless forecasts) - Verification and interpretation of probabilistic forecast systems - Climate change and inter-annual variability Part 4: - Scientific challenges for operational weather and climate services - A visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lecture notes | A pdf version of the slides will be available at http://www.iac.ethz.ch/edu/courses/master/modules/interannual-phenomena.html | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Literature | References are given during the lecture. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Prerequisites / Notice | Permission from lecturers required for students with limited background in atmosphere and climate | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Competencies |
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